By Harry Minium
As the women's basketball regular-season winds down, Old Dominion's chances of going to the NCAA tournament look to be very promising. Every prognosticator I was able to find online has ODU in the field of 64, seeded either tenth or 11th.
ODU rolled past Florida Atlantic, 60-49, Wednesday, to win its 16th home game in a row and the 13th of its last 14 games. The Monarchs are 27th in the NCAA RPI, and are perched higher than 37 schools that will make the NCAA field.
But with two regular-season games left, in addition to the Conference USA tournament, coach Nikki McCray says "we haven't wrapped up anything yet."
No they haven't. Not even a 24-4 record and a No. 27 RPI rating guarantees you a bid into the NCAA tournament.
So says Mel Greenberg, the Philadelphia-based journalist who long ago earned the nickname of "The Guru of Women's Basketball."
"I'm pretty sure that no team ranked as high as ODU has failed to get in," Greenberg said. "But stranger things have happened."
"The key to getting into the tournament," he added, "is to keep winning."
ODU's road to the Big Dance soon heads to Texas. After hosting UAB for senior day next Thursday, the Monarchs (24-4, 14-2 Conference USA) travel to Houston to face Rice in the regular-season finale. That will be a rematch of a game played in Norfolk on Feb. 13 when the Monarchs upended Rice, 66-59, in overtime.
ODU is first in the conference standings with a half-game lead over Rice (18-8, 13-2), which could tie the Monarchs again by winning at Louisiana Tech on Thursday.
It's worth noting that Conference USA has improved this season and that's helped ODU's RPI.
McCray has praised other C-USA schools for investing resources into women's basketball, and says it's paying dividends. In the end, that improvement could be the tipping point that gets two C-USA teams in the tournament.
All of the brackets I saw have Western Kentucky in the field and several said that Rice would be among the last teams left out.
Five C-USA teams are ranked among the top 65 in the RPI – No. 34 Western Kentucky, No. 51 Charlotte, No. 57 Middle Tennessee and No. 64 Rice, in addition to ODU.
C-USA has more schools in the top 65 than the Big East, American Athletic Conference and the Atlantic 10. And ODU's RPI is higher than ten ACC schools.
With those kinds of numbers, a good run in the conference tournament should assure ODU an at-large bid.
But the reality is that the NCAA tournament committee looks at more than numbers. And as with every NCAA championship selection committee, there is the suspicion that the major schools seem to get a break over mid-majors.
"You have to go beyond the numbers," Greenberg said. "There's always the eye test and that means, 'when you watch a team, do you believe that team belongs?' The numbers don't tell the complete story.
"Hopefully, somebody on the NCAA tournament committee has seen you play," he added, referring to the Monarchs.
Greenberg wrote about women's basketball for the Philadelphia Inquirer for 40 years and has spent the last ten covering the sport online. He established the first women's basketball Top 25.
He's been inducted into Women's Basketball Hall of Fame and still knows as much about the game as any journalist around.
He said the rise of ODU women's basketball from the ashes of an 8-23 season two years ago under McCray "certainly got my attention and the attention of a lot of people around the country."
It will get more attention nationally if the Monarchs make the NCAA tournament, he said.
McCray has brought one of the game's most storied programs back into relevance, something recognized by the NCAA a few weeks ago when ODU was named the national team of the week.
ODU won three national titles and was a regular NCAA tournament competitor until 2008, the last time the Lady Monarchs advanced to the Big Dance.
It's all guesswork, but it's fun to speculate about where the Monarchs might play if they end a 12-year drought.
Charlie Creme , a women's basketball prognosticator for ESPN, predicts ODU will be an 11th seed and play No. 6 Kentucky in Raleigh. That would be a sweet deal for ODU fans, as Raleigh is a little more than three hours from Norfolk.
Other prognosticators have ODU boarding a plane and heading west.
Realtimerpi.com has ODU facing Marquette in Evanston, Illinois, a Chicago suburb. Highposthoopscom has ODU playing LSU in Palo Alto, Calif., while Collegesportsmadness.com has the Monarchs meeting Missouri State in Iowa City.
This is the stretch of the season where you make your case to the tournament committee, but it's also a time when a team that plays aggressive defense like ODU needs rest. The Monarchs are physically exhausted, have nagging injuries and are mentally drained.
The schedule makers have been kind to ODU in that regard. ODU has eight days between last night and the March 5 game against UAB. ODU will also get some rest following the March 7 game at Rice.
Instead of returning to Norfolk, McCray wisely decided the Monarchs should stay in Texas and bus to Frisco, Texas, site of the Conference USA tournament. By doing so, the Monarchs avoid a round-trip to Norfolk.
"It will give us a chance to monitor their eating, their rest," McCray said. "They'll have time to decompress."
And get ready for a tournament that, as Greenberg noted, they may have to win to go dancing.
Contact Minium: hminium@odu.edu